Your Thanksgiving turkey dinner will have a significantly higher price tag this year, as a worsening bird flu epidemic threatens US flocks and turkey supplies.
CNET received data from industry watchdog Farm Forward that reveals the scale of the crisis. Approximately 3 million turkeys have died due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, or HPAI, so far this year. That’s already more than double the total bird flu deaths in 2024 (1.25 million), but still far less than the furious 2022 epidemic that killed over 9 million.
According to government data, this loss — representing roughly 1.45% of the total US turkey flock — is driving wholesale turkey prices up more than 26% from last year. Other projections, including from Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation who spoke to The New York Times, have the jump in turkey prices closer to 40%.
As reported by Axios, the US turkey flock is at a 40-year low. According to the USDA, just 4.8 billion pounds of production is expected, down 5% from 2024.
An accelerating outbreak
The spread of HPAI has accelerated dramatically in recent months, just ahead of the critical holiday season:
- 110 individual outbreaks have occurred on commercial turkey farms in 2025.
- The outbreak is intensifying: 34 commercial turkey flocks have been affected since Aug. 2025, with 21 flocks hit in Sept. alone and 15 already in Oct.
- Minnesota leads the nation in losses, with 962,300 turkeys culled.
- Ohio has experienced the highest number of outbreaks, with 41 individual farms affected (resulting in 511,400 turkey deaths).
Federal policy under scrutiny
While the immediate crisis affects consumers’ wallets, Farm Forward argues that long-standing federal policies, maintained across multiple administrations, have enabled conditions conducive to the massive and persistent spread of HPAI.
The organization contends that the federal government and poultry industry have prioritized profits over public health by allowing the operation of crowded concentrated animal feeding facilities, resisting mandatory HPAI testing protocols and declining to implement vaccination programs for poultry, despite their effectiveness in other countries.
