The Apollo-class asteroid 2024 YR4 continues to occupy scientists. Now that it has turned out that it will just miss the Earth, another danger has reared its head: a possible collision course with the moon.
According to the latest calculations, the probability of impact is around 4 percent. The impact could occur in December 2032.
NASA examines defensive measures
Should 2024 YR4 actually hit the moon, it could hurl large quantities of rock into Earth’s orbit. For those of us on Earth, we’d primarily see it as a spectacular meteor shower—but the flying debris would pose a real danger to satellites and the crew aboard the ISS.
NASA is currently investigating ways to prevent such an impact, with two main potential strategies: deflecting the asteroid or destroying it.
In order to deflect it, the exact mass of the 60-meter-wide asteroid would need to be figured out. Since it could vary greatly—from tens of thousands to several million tons—a reconnaissance mission would be required. However, NASA would have to act fast as the window of opportunity for such a mission would close as early as 2028.
The second option would be destruction of the asteroid using nuclear weapons. According to NASA’s calculations, a one-megaton nuclear bomb would be sufficient to break the asteroid into smaller, less dangerous pieces—regardless of its composition. For comparison’s sake, that’d be around 80 times the explosive power of the Hiroshima bomb but still significantly less than the 50-megaton Tsar Bomba, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested.
However, experts warn that nuclear explosions in space harbor considerable risks. The “Starfish Prime” high-altitude nuclear test in 1962 caused massive disruption to electronics and satellites. The consequences of a near-moon detonation can hardly be predicted right now.
A decision to come in 2028 at the earliest
Whether 2024 YR4 will actually hit the moon can’t be determined with more precision for at least a few more years. Until then, NASA will continue to search for alternatives that can safely avert catastrophe. However, with the 2032 deadline looming ahead, NASA will have to be quick on its feet to turn any strategy into reality.
Further reading: NASA calculated when life on Earth will end
This article originally appeared on our sister publication PC-WELT and was translated and localized from German.
